I’ve honestly felt like Admiral Stockdale in recent months, wishy-washing over whether Dean can really win. I’m still not convinced he can, though I do believe a Dean-Clark (or a Clark-Dean) ticket is the our best bet to unseat Bush. I don’t put much stock in polls this far in advance of the general election. But I do know that the economy is doing better, there have been no terrorist acts in the US, they have Hussein, and voters are *very* reluctant to unseat an incumbent president during wartime. Even if the economy sours, it will be very hard to beat Bush.

That being said, do not underestimate Dean’s ability to draw independent votes. It’s often said that Dean is sort of a pale imitation of McCain. Hmm..whom does that remind me of? Ah yes, W! And W was able to pick off some of the more conservative McCainites by playing the plain-spoken outsider railing against the pernicious insider culture of Washington. Dean does the same thing but with a progressive slant, and Dean will pick up the conservative independents’ progressive equivalent: thegreens.

Also, like Bush, Dean has tacked hard toward his party’s base during the primaries, but is well positioned to tack back toward the center during the general election by running on his relatively moderate record as a governor. And is it just me, or do the two men have similar personalities? Dean is obviously more intelligent and inquisitive than W. But the two have a similar swagger--as well as a shared tendency to say whacky things then get a hot under the collar from the criticism. That’s why I agree with Jerry that a Dean-Bush debate would be fascinating. Kind of like watching Kirk fight his
evil twin on star trek.

But does it make sense for Dean to follow a strategy that lost the popular vote? This raises a troubling possibility. Could we actually have yet another election where the popular and electoral votes diverge? The thought gives me shudders. If that happens either this election or the next, I suspect it will be the end of the electoral college. Our generation’s revolutionary constitutional act--and rightly so. For better or worse, the president is the one federal office we all vote for as a nation. It’s time our electoral system reflected that fact.

- posted by bigmouth @ 4:15 PM